The European Commission has set out accession roadmaps for four frontrunner candidates for European Union membership, saying Montenegro could conclude negotiations as early as December 2026, while Moldova and Ukraine could follow by early 2028 and the end of 2028 respectively if reforms stay on track.

The roadmaps were published on November 4 as part of the Commission's 2026 Enlargement Package, its annual assessment of candidate countries' progress over the past year. The four frontrunners are Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos described the package as one of the most ambitious ever, saying negotiations had proceeded at an unprecedented pace but now needed a clear path for the year ahead.

Montenegro is the closest to the finish line, having provisionally closed 21 negotiating chapters. The Commission said it could conclude negotiations as early as December 2026, with work on drafting its accession treaty potentially completed in spring 2027 and signature in June 2027. Albania, meanwhile, aims to conclude its negotiations in 2027.

Moldova could provisionally close 25 negotiating chapters in 2027, nine in the first half of the year and 16 in the second, and conclude negotiations by early 2028, provided it maintains its current pace of reforms. Ukraine could close seven chapters in 2027, beginning with education and culture, but the Commission said Kyiv must accelerate rule-of-law reforms to meet its ambitious goal of concluding all negotiations by the end of 2028.

Both Moldova and Ukraine have opened four of the six broad clusters of negotiating chapters, and the Commission said both now meet the conditions for the remaining two clusters, covering the green agenda and sustainable connectivity, and resources, agriculture and cohesion, to be opened by the end of 2026. For both countries, the Commission stressed reforms in the rule of law, democratic institutions, public administration and minority rights.

Alongside the roadmaps, the Commission proposed a mechanism for gradual integration, allowing candidate countries to take part more deeply in EU policies on energy, transport, digital affairs and defence before becoming full members. Dialogues on that gradual integration are expected to begin in the first quarter of 2027.

The Commission was careful to underline that the dates are indicative, not guarantees. The roadmaps are described as living documents grounded in the principle of each country's own merit, and the final decisions on opening and closing chapters, and on eventual membership, rest with the EU's member states in the Council, acting unanimously, followed by ratification in each country.

The package covers nine officially recognised candidate countries in total, along with Kosovo as a potential candidate. For Ukraine and Moldova in particular, the Commission said the past year had brought real momentum, but the coming twelve months would be decisive in determining whether they can take the final steps in the negotiating process by 2028.