The United States and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed military strikes on Iran in early November, after the American midterm elections, according to reports citing officials briefed on the war planning — a development that rattled oil markets and deepened fears of a wider Middle East war.

NPR reported on October 22, citing a person briefed on the planning, that the strike would come after Israel's elections on October 27 and the US midterm elections on November 3, with the US amassing forces in the region. The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that the American and Israeli militaries 'have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran,' with likely targets including Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenal. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth discussed the plans with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a visit to Israel this week, and the two countries have intensified military exercises, including Israeli flyovers over Iraq to simulate strike manoeuvres.

Pressure tactic or real plan?

Officials cited in the reports stressed that President Trump has not yet given the final order and that the preparations could be part of a campaign to pressure Tehran into a diplomatic deal. Trump told reporters late on October 21 that 'something one way or another' will 'happen fairly soon' in Iran, while repeatedly promising there will be no strikes before the midterms. Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, cautioned that previous military pressure had failed to bring Iran back to meaningful negotiations.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on October 22 that Iran is 'just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war,' adding that 'any scenario is conceivable, including the possibility of an attack by the US and Israel.' Iranian state media quoted a security source warning that if Iranian officials or civilian infrastructure were attacked, Iran would retaliate against US interests in the region and the assets of countries participating in the war.

Markets react, region braces

Brent crude futures rose to around $113 a barrel on Thursday as traders priced in the risk of escalation, while the Nasdaq fell 2.6 per cent for its worst day since June. The United States ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia — a move the State Department attributed to Houthi attacks in the region, though investors read it as another sign of potential operations. The strike planning comes after about a month-long pause in US strikes on Iran, in a war that began on February 28.

What to watch

With Israel's elections on October 27 and the US midterms on November 3, the window for any operation opens in early November. Netanyahu, who is seeking re-election, has campaigned on a threat to topple Iran's regime. Whether the plans mature into action — or remain leverage over Tehran — will be one of the defining questions of the coming weeks, with oil prices, Gulf shipping and regional security all hanging in the balance.