Brazilians are voting on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff that polls show is effectively tied, choosing between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The result will decide whether Latin America's largest country keeps its left-wing government or returns the Bolsonaro political movement to power.

Neither candidate won outright in the first round on October 4. Flavio Bolsonaro finished first with 47 percent of the vote, about 56.1 million valid votes, against 45 percent, about 53.9 million votes, for Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Because no candidate passed 50 percent of valid votes, Brazil's two-round system sent the top two into Sunday's runoff.

Polls point to a photo finish

Final opinion polls published on Saturday put the race within the margin of error. A CNT/MDA survey of 2,032 people conducted from October 21 to 23 gave Flavio Bolsonaro 46.3 percent against 45 percent for Lula, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. A Quaest poll conducted from October 17 to 20 put Bolsonaro at 45 percent and Lula at 44 percent, with a two-point margin of error, while a Datafolha survey published on October 22 had the two tied at 50 percent each of valid votes.

The narrow and shifting picture means turnout could prove decisive. About a fifth of voters did not take part in the first round, and both campaigns spent the final days chasing undecided voters and the supporters of eliminated candidates. 1 million votes, declined to endorse either finalist, while fifth-placed Ronaldo Caiado backed Bolsonaro.

Two very different offers

Flavio Bolsonaro has campaigned on a security-first platform, promising a crackdown on crime, hundreds of thousands of new prison places and cuts to government spending. He has also pledged to seek legal pardons for his father and others convicted over the storming of government buildings in January 2023 after his father's defeat in the previous election. Jair Bolsonaro was later convicted, barred from running again before 2030 and arrested in 2025, and he endorsed his eldest son as his political heir.

Lula, who first won the presidency in 2002 and returned to office in 2022, has campaigned on expanding welfare, including targeted measures for microentrepreneurs such as debt forgiveness and higher revenue thresholds.

Why the result matters beyond Brazil

The choice carries consequences beyond Brazil. A Bolsonaro victory would deepen a rightward shift in parts of Latin America and could reshape Brazil's relationships with the United States and China, while a Lula win would sustain a major progressive government and its emphasis on welfare and Amazon protection. The contest has also been clouded by legal and institutional disputes, including disputes over candidacies and online platforms, which could shape how the next government approaches the courts.

Once polls close and votes are counted, Brazil will know whether it has chosen continuity under Lula or a return to power for the Bolsonaro movement through his son.