India and the United States are on the verge of concluding a bilateral trade agreement, with the top diplomats of both countries signalling that the end of a year-long negotiation is near. After wide-ranging talks in Mumbai on Tuesday with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that only a small number of items remain.

"I would say we're about as close as you can be without having an executed agreement," Mr. Rubio said, adding that the remaining issues could be wrapped up shortly. Hours earlier, President Donald Trump said at the White House that the two countries were "pretty close" to a deal. "They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal," he told reporters, describing it as "a much different kind of deal than we've done."

What the talks covered

The Ministry of External Affairs said the two ministers welcomed the progress in negotiations on the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement and reaffirmed their commitment to an early conclusion. Discussions spanned trade, defence, technology, energy security and regional developments. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, who attended the meeting, described the talks as productive.

Mr. Rubio, who is on a two-day visit to Mumbai and Jamnagar, also made an energetic pitch for India to buy more American energy and defence equipment, calling India a "refining superpower" and noting the transformative role increased US energy trade could play in diversifying India's supply chains. The Jamnagar stop takes in the world's largest refining complex, operated by Reliance Industries.

Why the timing matters

The breakthrough mood follows a sequence of steps aimed at clearing obstacles. In August last year, Washington imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on most Indian goods after negotiations broke down. A framework agreed in February lowered the rate to 18 per cent, but talks had since moved slowly — Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said earlier this month they had "plateaued", while Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said last week the first tranche was in its final stages.

Last week, Mr. Trump waived potential new tariffs that would have punished India for its extensive purchases of Russian crude, a move Mr. Rubio has described as connected to the trade effort. The administration said it was entering a 60-day review period on Russian-oil tariffs, and Mr. Rubio noted that India has been voluntarily diversifying its energy mix even as it continues to buy millions of barrels of Russian oil a day.

What comes next

Mr. Rubio said he expected the agreement to materialise in weeks rather than months, and that the leaders of the two countries could sign it once the text is final. No signing date has been announced. Mr. Rubio cautioned against announcing an incomplete deal, saying both sides need to agree on every detail and ensure the wording means the same thing in each capital. India, for its part, is seeking a tariff rate comparable to those of rival manufacturing exporters such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.